Monday, March 15, 2010

Taking Another Shot at TBT (4th time)

Three times we played it and made money.  I am taking another shot at TBT, but this time it is VERY short-term trade and thus involves a lot of risk.  


The FOMC meeting will conclude tomorrow at 2:15pm.  No change in interest rate is expected.  However, many are expecting the Fed to slightly change the language and drop "extended period" from its final decision.  That's what bond market will be looking for, and if the language is indeed changed, the market makers will very quickly adjust for future rate hikes.  


Assuming TBT is trading around $48 tomorrow, at 2:00pm I will buy March $48 straddle.  Specifically,


- Buy to open March $48 calls
- Buy to open March $48 puts


I expect TBT to make a sharp move in either direction and I'll be out by 2:30pm.  I am not expecting a home run here, may be 20-30% within half hour.  But if we actually get a rate change, then sky is the limit.  That's the trade!


Keep in mind this is risky and speculative and requires you to stay on your feet.  I will let readers know beforehand the price I pay when I fill the order.  


Good luck!