Tuesday, March 2, 2010

My Two Cents About the Market

Several of my readers have approached me about I have been a bit inactive since Feb expiration.  Folks, as I alluded in the past, I believe the market will stay range bound until May/June which right now happens to be between 1050 and 1150.  We're approaching the upper limit, the VIX is back to under 19 and I think complacency is returning to market fast.  


What we saw yesterday was a mutual fund Monday.  It shouldn't surprise anyone that the market rallied because billions poured into 401ks and other retirement funds that mutual funds had to immediately allocate because it was Monday and 1st of the month.  


Capital preservation always trumps aggression for profits.  


That's my mantra and I don't want to push my luck too hard on the long or short side until the picture is bit more clear.  Many many stocks are trading between 50- and 200-day moving averages, which is an area that can lead them in any direction.  


I think this market could take another leg down to retest 1050 area.  There is a long list of economic headwinds from regulatory reform, 10% unemployment, Fed potentially draining liquidity, European debt crisis, etc.  Any one of them could have investors hitting the panic button, and with VIX getting back under 19, just be careful.  


I will post as I find trades with better risk/reward.