Monday, April 5, 2010

Housekeeping: Winners and Losers

LPX - We sold May 7.5/10 bull put spread for $1.50 credit.  The stock has ripped higher on rising product pricing and upgrades lately.  I don't believe the run is over, but I think it is prudent to take profits here as the spread has shrunk to $0.50 to $0.60.  That's almost 100% folks.  I am trying to close it for $0.50 but may have to move the order up slightly to get filled.  


Some may have also bought May $10 calls for $0.20 on the back of unusual buying.  Those calls are now going for $0.75.  I think the right thing to do here is to roll May $10 calls to August $12.50 calls for $0.40 credit or better.  This way you take some off the table and still stay bullish.  You can then also elect to sell May $12.50 calls thus converting it into a calendar spread.  Similar to AAPL and V trade, $12.50 calls can be rolled each month until the stock eventually gets to $12.50, which is where I believe it is heading in the long run.  


LVS - Another 7% run this morning and now June 19/22.50 call spread has gone fully in-the-money and is currently trading for $2.22.  This is $3.50 spread that still has $1.28 to go.  If you were initiating this spread as a brand new position, you would be inclined to make 57% profit by June expiration as long as the stock remains above $22.50.  I am going to let the spread expand further to $2.60-2.75 before finally closing the full position.  Remember, we sold half at $2.00.  


WYNN - June 75/85 call spread has expanded even further, now going for $5.40, and it is wise to take some profits here.  I am closing half here and will wait for further expansion closer to $7.50 to close the remaining.  I don't believe the bull case for Macau casino stocks is over yet.  Our entry price was $3.15, so this is 71% in three weeks.  


POT - We have April 125/135/140 butterfly that has gone completely awkward.  Somehow I tend to have really bad luck with POT and I don't know why.  This is the second time I have lost money in it.  Anyway, I am closing 135 and 140 strikes completely and leaving 125 calls open.  April $125 calls are going for $0.55.  My plan is to try to roll April $125 calls to May 130/135 call spread for even money.  The call spread is going for $0.70, so I need the stock to come back a little bit.  Having May 130/135 call spread is a long shot but it is still better to have that than April $125 calls that expire in two weeks.  In my mind, I have basically written off this trade completely.  


P.S.  I am looking forward to upcoming earnings season as it will give me a chance to get very active again.  Until then, there will be very limited new trading opportunities to have based on unusual activity, technical patterns, etc.