Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Cooper Tire (CTB) Earnings Play

Analysts have mostly mixed feelings regarding Cooper Tire (CTB) and its rival Goodyear (GT).  Morgan Stanley is actually "Underweight" GT, but that is not stopping at least one trader making a bullish risk reversal trade on CTB before earnings on May 5.  


Earlier today, trader sold 3500 June $20 puts for $1.05 credit to finance 7000 June $22.50 calls for $0.65. Open interest is zero on both strikes.  Can't argue with the activity.  


Technically, see daily chart on the right, the stock is making second attempt to break above $22 resistance after a long consolidation.  Earnings just might give us that and bullish activity seems to be betting on that.  Fundamentally, the stock is trading at 3x cash and 14x earnings, relatively cheap-to-fair valuation.  


Given the bullish activity I am buying the following calendar:


- Buy to open June $22.50 calls
- Sell to open May $22.50 calls


I just filled partial order for $0.30 and will try to fill the rest later today or tomorrow for the same $0.30 or $0.25.  I think this is a really cheap shot on upside bet.  This is due to simple fact that May $22.50 calls are going for $0.50, but by converting to May/June calendar, we can bet on the upside with 40% less cost and Theta in our favor.  I like the odds.  


Good luck!