Thursday, February 18, 2010

JP Morgan (JPM) Pin Action Iron Butterfly

Before I describe anything here, please note that this is extremely risky trade with two days left for Feb expiration.  It appears to me that they're trying to pin JPM at $40.  If that turns out to be correct, then the following iron butterfly trade could produce as much as 100% profit by 4pm tomorrow.  


- Buy to open Feb $39 puts
- Buy to open Feb $41 calls
- Sell to open Feb $40 puts
- Sell to open Feb $40 calls


Basically, you're buying 39/41 strangle and selling 40 straddle, thus creating an iron butterfly.  See the attached P&L chart.  The theory here is JPM will be pinned at $40 by 4pm Friday.  But again this market has no memory day to day, so this is extremely risky and speculative and keep position size small.  As of this writing, the above iron butterfly is going for net credit of $0.58.  This credit will slowly bleed to zero by 4pm tomorrow if JPM stock stays right here at $40.  


Good luck!