Tuesday, January 19, 2010

United Health (UNH)



The entire group of health insurers rallied on Monday based on favorable outcome of MA Senate elections. Leaving all the political bickering aside, purely from a technical standpoint I think the stock is a bit overextended here and a pull back towards $30 is reasonable. There is heavy support at $30 which should hold. Long-term weekly chart is attached. I like the following calendar spread:

- Buy to open Mar $32 puts
- Sell to open Feb $32 puts

The trade can be done for a debit of $0.30 as of Monday's closing prices and provides nearly 3-to-1 return if the stock drifts lower to $32 by Feb expiration. In case the upward momentum continues, I would exit the trade if the stock breaks $38, which is current resistance, on greater than daily average volume.