Thursday, January 28, 2010

Microsoft Earnings Play 1/28/10



Microsoft reports earnings tonight after market close.  It is quite remarkable that Microsoft implied volatility in the front month is elevated to highest level in 52 weeks.  At-the-money $29 straddle is going for $2.10.  This is huge because if you really believe the straddle is cheap, then you expect Microsoft to make a monster 7.2% move in either direction.  Given its large market cap and weighting in Nasdaq, you bet a move like that would move the index significantly tomorrow.  


Looking at the daily chart you can see, Microsoft did make an almost 10% move to upside on excellent report last time they reported.  Last quarter, they beat earnings by nearly 25% (40 cents vs. 32 cents consensus).  I expect another monster quarter from Microsoft and beat on both top and bottom line.  While I certainly have a bullish bias, the move in the stock might be a bit subdued or muted due to general market sell-off we are currently under.  


With that said, I think the straddle is overpriced and I want to be a seller of elevated implied volatility.  Specifically, I like the following double diagonal calendar spread:


- Buy to open March $28 calls
- Buy to open March $31 calls
- Sell to open Feb $28 calls
- Sell to open Feb $31 calls


As of this writing, the whole spread is going for a debit of $0.42.  Currently, Feb IV is at 35 and March at 29.  Tomorrow morning, I expect both Feb and March IVs to collapse and settle around 25, which actually might be conservative considering that the VIX is elevated as general market continues to sell-off.  


If you adjust the IV to 25, the hypothetical P&L chart on the trade shows break even points of $27 on the downside and $32 on the upside.  I like the odds.


Good luck!