"C1Q earnings season kicks off with INTC and LLTC on Tuesday 4/13; with 10 QTD positive semi preannouncements, we expect semis to beat C1Q and guide C2Q seasonally off a higher base. We remain bullish on the Semi Cycle and reiterate our price target on the SOX of 500, or 33% appreciation from current levels. Slowing supply growth cyclically (2009 capex 50% below trend) and structurally (slowing wafer start growth post 300 mm transition), should lead to sustainably higher utilization, relative pricing, and a redistribution of supply chain inventory burden. We are upgrading shares of TXN to Outperform from Neutral and raising our PT to $32 from $24 (pls see our rpt: “TXN: Upgrading to Outperform”); we also highlight INTC as our top large cap pick, and also favor BRCM, LLTC, MCHP and MLNX into earnings."
As of this writing, I am showing SMH trading over 42,000 puts. However, 49% of them are sold on the bid with biggest chunks being sold in front month at April $28 strike. That tells me traders are not necessarily expecting any significant pullback. Additionally, traders are mostly selling upside calls on INTC. Specifically, early in the morning there was a buyer of 2000x April/May $23 call calendar spread. And within last hour, someone bought 2000x April-23/May-24 an diagonal bear call spread (bought May $24 calls and sold equal number of April $23 calls for 4 cents credit). 
- Buy to open May $23 calls
- Sell to open April $23 calls
I just filled the order for $0.26. The mark is $0.25 so you can try for that. The implied volatility is sharply elevated at 50 vs. May at 26. The IV in April continues to inch up through out today, so you might be able to get even better than $0.25 towards the end of day.
Good luck!
